new zealand votes for… what?

“Conservatives win power in New Zealand” announced the Associated Press on Saturday night, as if this marked the end of life as we know it for the tiny nation of politically correct, socially concerned and genuinely nice people.

There is no doubt that Premier-elect John Keys and his party faithful are conservative -  and New Zealanders know it. But it will take more than a cocky retired currency trader to turn the tide of liberalism and social reform that has dominated New Zealand for the past two decades.

Keys was quick to draw an analogy between Saturday’s result and the other election this week:

Today, New Zealand has spoken, in their hundreds of thousands, they have voted for change.

This is stretching it a bit. To an outsider, Keys’ policies wouldn’t seem all that different to those of the outgoing government. That’s because they’re not. Finding little to fault with the current administration, Keys focused his campaign on emotive domestic issues, such as improving education and fighting crime.

His attempts to win voters with tax cuts were scuttled when the then-current Finance Minister matched them. Blaming the government for the looming recession didn’t work either. New Zealanders understand recession all too well and the vulnerability of New Zealand’s export-based economy.

Saturday’s election does not represent change, so much as a changing of the guard. At the end of the day it was time for someone else to have a go at the wheel. That is what New Zealanders voted for.

So what does it mean? Foreign policy and diplomatic relations are unlikely to change. Twenty years of frosty relations with the United States and an often strained relationship with our “mate” Australia has helped New Zealand find its place in the world. Any attempt by Keys to change this will meet stern opposition - including from his own party.

There will not be much change at home either. Big ticket items, such as the Treaty process (the return to Maori of land and other resources confiscated during the 1800s) and New Zealand’s environmental policy are entrenched in the New Zealand psyche. Keys would be wise to leave them well-alone.

Any attempts to implement any right-wing policies will meet stern opposition from Key’s coalition partners. United Future party leader, Peter Dunne, has already indicated that he will scuttle any hard-right agendas:

The last thing New Zealand needs now with a new government is an outburst of extremism.

The real change - and New Zealand’s greatest loss - is Helen Clark herself. She has been a worthy custodian, the dominant political figure of her time and one of the greatest leaders in New Zealand history. She leaves some pretty big shoes to fill.